Dunning-Kruger effect: Definition, causes and how to counter it

Have you ever worked with someone who always showed that he knew a lot despite his limited knowledge? Of course, you have. This is what is now called the Dunning-Kruger effect. It was first described by psychologists Justin Kruger and David Dunning in 1999. In today’s corporate world, the Dunning-Kruger effect is an important metric for measuring an employee’s effectiveness in the company.

So, how confident can a person be despite lacking the intellectual capacity? Well, for that, we need to look at an incident that inspired Dunning and Kruger to develop their theory. 

On January 6, 1995. McArthur Wheeler and Clifton Earl Johnson successfully executed two robberies in the Greater Pittsburgh area in the Western Pennsylvania region of the United States. So, what was special about this robbery? It was the fact that Wheeler and Johnson made no attempts to disguise themselves from the bank’s CCTV cameras.  

Instead, they rubbed lemon juice on their faces, thinking that since it made ink invisible, it would do the same with their faces. Both were caught as soon as the police published their CCTV image. So, we must understand that people with limited skills often overestimate their competence in a real-life workplace. 

The Dunning-Kruger effect 

Inspired by this event, Dunning and Kruger conducted research and published a paper in 1999. Titled “Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments,” it followed a unique strategy to conduct its research. They took four groups of adults and measured them on four metrics: humor, logical reasoning, grammar, and Competence Begets Calibration.

They found two startling conclusions in their studies:

• Incompetent people were far more confident in their skills.
• Meanwhile, competent people underestimate their abilities and think they need to learn more to increase their knowledge.

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How incompetent people overestimate their skills 

Dunning and Kruger found that incompetent individuals were unaware of their incompetence. One of the main reasons they listed for this was the lack of negative feedback. Because people usually follow the reasoning of “if you do not have something nice to say, don’t say anything at all.”

They also found that even if the incompetent individual receives negative feedback, they attribute that to a single cause. Their thinking is that for one to succeed, a lot of things have to go right, but failure can be caused by just a single factor. This means that if they receive negative feedback, they don’t relate it to their lack of skill but blame other factors that might be beyond their control.

The final reason they gave for the incompetence people’s confidence is their failure to recognize competence when they said it. This means they are unable to learn even from their peers, which means the chance of them overcoming their lack of skills is minimal to none.

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How competent people underestimate their skills 

Meanwhile, it was another story for competent individuals who regularly overestimate themselves. The study found that skilled employees are always self-critical of their work and usually consider that they should continuously strive to improve as they underestimate their skills.

Dunning and Kruger explained that competent employees think that since they perform well in their tasks, everyone else must have done the same. They think that since their peers are working or studying with them, they must be equally talented as they are at the same place.

Dunning and Kruger called this ‘The Burden of Expertise.’ They also argued that since competent employees underestimated their ability, they did not exude confidence as much as their incompetent employees.

However, things took a turn when these candidates were apprised of the scores of the incompetent employees. After that, their scores improved massively. In a real-life scenario, though, with this lack of information, competent employees are bound to underestimate their ability.

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Disadvantages of the Dunning-Kruger effect

Discourages innovation and upskilling 

In a workplace where too many employees overestimate their skills, the first thing that happens is a stagnation of talent. This is because such people will never think that they need to upskill or improve upon themselves. This also means that they are receptive to any negative feedback and thus will, in a way, try to improve their skills.

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Poor decision making 

Another disadvantage of having people with the Dunning-Kruger effect is that their inflated sense of themselves leads to poor decision-making. Since they also do not recognize competence, they will not acknowledge the advice of their peers who might be more qualified. This means that they will create policies that might not be beneficial in the long run for the company.

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Creates tensions in the workplace 

Another problem with people suffering from this effect is that their overconfidence can frustrate their more talented peers. The more talented peers who can see that the ideas propagated by the less skilled employees are bound to fail may be unable to convince the higher-ups in the company as they are not as confident in their skills as their less talented peers.

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Stagnates organization’s growth 

An organization is as good as its employees. So, people who overestimate their talent can turn the entire organization into thinking where every individual starts to over-inflate their competence. This creates an atmosphere where the organization is overestimating its capabilities, such as revenue generation, growth opportunities, and policy-making, which can greatly impact the day-to-day workings and the company’s future. 

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How to stop the Dunning Kruger effect in the workplace 

Make employees self-reflect 

One way organizations deal with bias in hiring is by making the recruiter understand that they might be susceptible to bias. This allows them to challenge themselves and identify situations where they may be subconsciously biased toward anyone. The same could be applied here, where employees are encouraged to continuously self-assess themselves so that there is no culture of stagnation in the organization. 

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Always encourage upskilling 

Encouraging employees to only get better by learning continuously is another great way for companies to stop the Dunning-Kruger effect. This can be done by organizing workshops or providing employees with e-learning services such as LinkedIn Learning and others. Companies can also incentivize such initiatives by giving employees specific targets to meet upon completion, of which they are awarded remuneration.

Also Read: Interview Bias Audit: A Guide to Fair Hiring Practices

Encourage a culture of feedback 

Dunning and Kruger mentioned that the reason unskilled people overestimate themselves was a lack of feedback. However, if done in a positive and constructive way they become a good way of addressing such issues. Companies can use peer review to help employees get honest feedback from their colleagues that might help them improve upon their skills. Companies can also use cross training which will put employees out of their comfort zone and will give an indication on how adept they are at learning a new task in a different environment.

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Use Data and AI 

With the recent rise in the use of Artificial Intelligence in the industry, there are now a host of tools that use AI and Machine Learning to provide insights into the workings of the company. These tools can be used to determine which employees are victims of the Dunning-Kruger effect. We must understand that people who over-inflate their competence are not unaware of it. Thus, by using date-driven decisions, they can be helped to know where they are lacking and help them work on those areas.

Another way a company can reduce this effect in the company is to hire competent employees. This is where our Artificial Intelligence backed tool BarRaiser is of great use to companies looking to hire the best talent out there. 

BarRaiser AI platform helps companies plan smart interviews that help the organization save time and money while not compromising the quality of hiring being done. Our AI Interview Copilot helps the recruiter plan the interview in a detailed fashion. This includes: the job they are hiring for, the timing of the interview, the number of rounds and the number of topics they’d like to cover in an interview.

Using this information our AI bot creates an interview plan with specific questions related to the job posting. Our tool also can create questions during the interview by going through the candidate CV or through the context of the interview (as the entire interview is recorded and transcribed).

With BarRaiser we guarantee you quality hiring without any bias. We also provide other great things such as interview as a service where we will take over your entire hiring process. We have a pool of over 1500 trained interviewers so that companies can find the most suitable candidate for the job.